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1st Middlesex Senate: 2010 and 1996 compared
Eileen Donoghue prevailed in yesterday’s Democratic primary for the 1st Middlesex State Senate District. The last time there was a contested primary for that seat was in 1996 when Steve Panagiotakos defeated Matt Donahue. Here’s a town-by-town comparison of the two elections:
Dunstable
Eileen Donoghue – 139 — Chris Doherty – 105
Steve Panagiotakos – 82 — Matt Donahue – 63
Groton
Eileen Donoghue – 391 — Chris Doherty – 305
Steve Panagiotakos – 108 — Matt Donahue – 157
Lowell
Eileen Donoghue – 4241 — Chris Doherty – 2387
Steve Panagiotakos – 7453 — Matt Donahue – 2963
Pepperell
Eileen Donoghue – 270 — Chris Doherty – 250
Steve Panagiotakos – 252 — Matt Donahue – 131
Tyngsborough
Eileen Donoghue – 503 — Chris Doherty – 431
Steve Panagiotakos – 536 — Matt Donahue -203
Westford
Eileen Donoghue – 795 — Chris Doherty – 471
Steve Panagiotakos – 405 — Matt Donahue – 526
Totals
Eileen Donoghue – 6339 — Chris Doherty – 3949
Steve Panagiotakos – 8836 — Matt Donahue – 4043
It isn’t clear to me what lesson you draw from the comparison of 1996 and 2010.
It may be significant – in terms of the enthusiasm gap – that in 1996 turnout in the First Middlesex was 13,563 in the Democratic Primary and 1,623 in the Republican . This year based on rough estimates Democratic turnout fell to 10,300 or so and Republican surged to 7,800 +.
Arthur – my intent with this post was more historical than analytical. I thought the two were natural to compare: 1996 is the last time it was an open seat, it was the last contested Democratic primary, the towns in the district were the same, and that race like this one featured two well-funded candidates who ran strong campaigns. The 1996 stats were close at hand so I just threw them out there for people to use as they saw fit.
The two immediate observations I would make from the comparison is the much larger number of voters who participated in that year’s Democratic primary and the immensity of Steve Panagiotakos’s victory that year. Also, your observation on the number of voters taking Democratic vs Republican ballots in those two years is important and invites a future post on that topic.
Your point is fair , but it still seems dangerous to compare elections fourteen years apart without giving some context . For example , in 1996 the number of voters in the District who could participate in a Democratic primary was 57,000 or so ; thus , the Donahue and Panagiotakos campaigns got about 23.6% of them to take part.This year the pool was around 82,000 and the participation rate was 12.5% or so .
The similarity in the raw numbers could mask the failure to engage .