There was no Lowell City Council meeting this past week, so I’ll pick up where I left off in my last newsletter and share some more thoughts on elections and mail-in voting.

In the aftermath of the September 3, 2024, primary election, people asked me, “Were you surprised by the results?” My response was, “I was surprised the turnout was so high.”

The starting point for my low expectations was a function of the election cycle and the timing of this election. In odd numbered years, we always have a city council election. In even numbered years, like this one, we always have a state election, but the offices on the ballot in state elections differ from election to election. Every four years, we vote for president; every four years, we vote for governor. Those cycles are staggered so we don’t vote for governor in the same year we vote for president. For example, in 2012, 2016, and 2020, we voted for president. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, we voted for governor. In gubernatorial election years, the offices of lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, state treasurer, and state auditor are also on the ballot. But in presidential election years, it’s just president.

Some offices – US Representative, State Senator, and State Representative – are on the ballot every two years, and our two US Senators have six-year terms that are similarly staggered, but this year, none of the current occupants of those offices, except for Rady Mom in the 18th Middlesex Representative District, had opponents in the Democratic Primary.

Besides the 18th Middlesex contest, which was on the ballots of only one-third of Lowell residents, the only other contested office on the Democratic Primary ballot in Lowell was register of deeds. While the three candidates for that office worked hard to get their supporters to the polls, casual voters do not typically turn out just to vote for register of deeds (which is partly because most people have no idea that register of deeds is an elected office).

Another twist in presidential election years is that the presidential primary is held in March, so people have already voted in one primary election this year.

One further factor unique to this year was the timing of the election. For several completely legitimate reasons, most notably the lead time needed to mail out absentee ballots to overseas voters, the election was held on Tuesday, September 3 which was the day after Labor Day. In most communities, there was no school on the Friday of that weekend, and in places like Lowell where schools serve as polling places, there was no school on election day either (for school security reasons). Consequently, for families of school-aged children, election day was the end of the five-day weekend, and for everyone else it was the first day back to work after a three day holiday weekend, a schedule not optimal for generating interest in the election.

In normal presidential years, unless there’s an open Congressional seat with multiple Democrats fighting it out for the nomination, there is rarely a high visibility contested election on the Democratic Primary ballot to drive voters to the polls. As a result, turnout has been historically low in such elections. That seems to have changed in the past few years. Let’s look at the numbers.

The following data would be best depicted in a graph or spreadsheet, but I’ll work within the confines of the newsletter and present it as text. Below, I’ve shown the total vote in the Democratic Primary in the ten towns in the Northern Middlesex Registry of Deeds district for every presidential election year since 1996:

Town Name – 1996 – 2000 – 2004 – 2008 – 2012 – 2016 – 2020 – 2024

Billerica – 1104 – 1202 – 2865 – 4428 – 1077 – 841 – 7356 – 3018

Carlisle – 229 – 216 – 234 – 491 – 624 – 163 – 1715 – 705

Chelmsford – 1012 – 1109 – 1120 – 2918 – 2431 – 1039 – 8403 – 6350

Dracut – 2094 – 1327 – 3344 – 2142 – 1147 – 751 – 5149 – 2634

Dunstable – 150 – 105 – 72 – 202 – 59 – 61 – 705 – 350

Lowell – 11058 – 4133 – 4018 – 4815 – 1988 – 4235 – 13464 – 7553

Tewksbury – 1196 – 2062 – 1080 – 2335 – 973 – 769 – 5980 – 2412

Tyngsboro – 753 – 335 – 726 – 687 – 314 – 236 – 2187 – 981

Westford – 947 – 462 – 348 – 2049 – 520 – 336 – 5563 – 2454

Wilmington – 1039 – 1374 – 897 – 1556 – 712 – 557 – 4852 – 1829

As you scan your eye across each line, a few upward blips are visible, but there is a real spike across all towns in 2020. Notably, that Democratic primary featured as US Senate fight in which Congressman Joe Kennedy III challenged incumbent Senator Ed Markey, so there was a lot of money and effort expended to turnout the vote that year. Without such a marquee race on the primary ballot this year, the turnout numbers did drop from the 2020 turnout, but they are still substantially higher than almost every other year examined. Why was that?

One theory I have heard, and which I’ve come to accept, is the jump in turnout in these two elections is the result of mail-in voting. While Massachusetts always had absentee ballots, qualifying for one was limited and complicated. But triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, Massachusetts opened the door to “no excuse absentee voting” which means that if you want to vote by mail, all you have to do is ask. That emergency Covid measure was made permanent by the state legislature in 2022.

Presidential elections see the highest turnout of all so people have voting on their minds in presidential election years and many likely have already submitted the form requesting a mail-in ballot. That form contains a check box that says something like, “Send me a mail-in ballot for all elections this year.” Checking that box means that a ballot will land in your mailbox in mid-August for the early September primary. Perhaps you had no intention of voting in that election. You may not even have known what offices or candidates were on the ballot. But if the ballot was delivered to you, you will most likely cast your vote and mail it back to be counted.

It might be hard to believe, but if you make it easier for people to vote, more people will vote.

Which brings me to next year’s Lowell city election. Whatever good things the new hybrid district/at large system has brought to Lowell, increased turnout was not one of them. As I’ve written before, the turnout in last November’s city election was the lowest it’s been in any city election for more than a century.

I commend anyone who works to register people to vote. But when it comes to city election, their time would be better spent getting people who are (1) already registered, and (2) who already vote in presidential elections, to also vote for city council and school committee. I’ve often said that because city councilors are responsible for roads, drinking water, sewage, parks, public safety, snow removal, trash disposal and so many other things, that councilors have a bigger impact on the lives of the residents of this city than does the president of the United States. But you wouldn’t know that from voter participation. Consider these numbers:

In the 2020 presidential election, 37,592 people voted in Lowell.

In the 2021 city election, 12,145 people voted in Lowell.

In the 2022 gubernatorial election, 20,837 people voted in Lowell.

In the 2023 city election, 7,516 people voted in Lowell.

What can be done to increase the ever-declining turnout in city elections? If you suspect that the availability of mail-in voting has substantially increased participation in low interest state primaries, why not do more to promote mail-in voting during city election years? Why doesn’t the city mail each registered voter a vote-by-mail ballot application each spring of a city election year? I’ve looked at the relevant statute, Massachusetts General Laws chapter 54, section 25B, and didn’t see anything to prohibit it – although the statute does permit councilors to opt out of even using vote-by-mail in city elections but fortunately, no one in Lowell has attempted to kill it yet. Still, if our elected officials truly do care about increasing the number of residents who participate in local elections, perhaps they will consider mailing everyone a vote-by-mail application next spring and see if that helps increase turnout.

****

Last Sunday’s Mausoleum Tour of Lowell Cemetery drew 250 people which was an amazing turnout. If you missed it and want another chance to see Lowell Cemetery, I’ll be leading traditional 90-minute walking tours on Saturday, October 5, 2024, and Sunday, October 6, 2024, both starting at 10 am from 77 Knapp Ave. The tours are free and require no advance registration. It will be the same tour both days, but much of the content will be different from past years.

For those interested in Jack Kerouac, this year’s Lowell Celebrates Kerouac Fall Festival runs from October 10 through October 14, 2024. There are many great events but two already on my calendar are a Kerouac-themed tour of St. Joseph’s Cemetery led by Kerouac-scholar Kurt Phaneuf on Friday, October 11, 2024, at 11 am; and another event on Saturday, October 12, 2024, at 11 am at the Pollard Memorial Library Community Room, when another Kerouac expert, Paul Marion, will discuss his new book Portraits Along the Way which I recently reviewed on richardhowe.com.