Festive DNC ends. Will Dems stay united? by Marjorie Arons Barron

The entry below is being cross posted from Marjorie Arons Barron’s own blog.

Kamala Harris may have started her speech Thursday night as the little girl inspired by her mother to be anything she wanted to be, urged on by mommy to “do something” to challenge injustice, but the Democratic nominee ended her speech in warrior mode. No frills or sequins or even summer colors for her. Her conservative attire was all about getting down to business.

Her speech was pitch perfect. Beyond her personal story, she reinforced the values that have informed her whole career, her roles as prosecutor and protector, her growth as Vice President in the “room where it happened,” her commitments to see and respond to the middle class, her identification with hardworking Americans across party, gender, religion, ages – all came across loud and clear. Particularly impressive was her forceful and strategic navigation of certain foreign policy issues and muscular commitment to democracy. Her speech was a home run.

The most annoying parts of the DNC were the length of some of the speeches, pushing key presenters outside of prime time in East Coast battleground states. My least favorite was Bill Clinton, whose rambling speech was not well delivered and low on energy. Looking at him drove me back to “Slick Willy’s” Monica Lewinsky scandal.

By contrast, I was delighted by presentations like the short, punchy speech by the Genesee County, Michigan Sheriff Chris Swanson, right out of central casting, who blasted Trump’s January 6 incitement to riot. One couldn’t help comparing his robust Harris endorsement with Trump’s  teeny weeny anti-crime rally at another Michigan county sheriff’s headquarters on Tuesday, with a few stony-faced uniformed deputies standing behind him as props.

The four-day, highly produced and effectively delivered DNC event left most in Chicago’s United Center and many at home with a real sugar high. Manufacturers’ warning label: may be followed by a let-down in energy, even in optimism, a setting in of reality. While Harris has improved on Biden’s standing in the polls, her advantages are still margins-of-error differences. November 5th is a lifetime away.

One challenge is to turn out the Democratic base. Harris has definitely improved on Biden’s support among Blacks, even bringing back some Black males who had migrated to Donald Trump. So, too, with Hispanic support. While 58 percent of Hispanics poll as supporting her now, Biden got 65 percent of their votes in 2020. Looking more closely at the 2020 returns, however, Trump exceeded Biden among non-college educated Hispanic voters. Clearly Harris’s outreach needs to go further.

Trump’s sweet spot is voters aged 45 to 65. Though Biden in 2020 improved slightly on 2016 and 2018 Democratic support among those over 65, Trump still ran ahead of him among boomers and older. This week’s convention was definitely geared to younger voters, who have shown up at the polls less dependably than older ones. Most elders I know are thrilled to see the torch being passed to a younger generation, even though many of us would fail a test identifying the pop stars who appeared or all the music that was played. Older Harris supporters need to strengthen their cohort behind the Vice President.

There are many unanswered questions, to put it mildly. In her agreeably short acceptance speech, bereft of a laundry list of promises, Harris was elegantly nuanced on the Middle East. She was fierce in standing against Iran, stout in defense of Israel’s right to exist and defend itself, while also unaccepting of the tragic plight of the Palestinians. Still, the convention refused to hear any Palestinian-American speaker while welcoming a family member of a hostage seized by Hamas. To what extent will this slight writ large affect the outcome in Michigan, home to the largest Muslim population among battleground states -especially with Green Party candidate Jill Stein and her Muslim running mate on the ballot?

For that matter, in a razor-close election, what will be the impact of RFK’s Trump endorsement or Jill Stein’s effect in the battleground states?

Harris has yet to hold a full press conference or a long interview. When she does, it won’t be flawless. How will the press report on it? Will the media continue to normalize Trump’s two-lies-per-minute rallies while pouncing mercilessly on Harris for any spin, misstatement or comment requiring a walk-back? When can the press be depended on to fact-check Trump’s lies on immigration and crime statistics? To what extent will voters learn the extent of AI and deep fake technology, which is sure to play an increasing role in attacks against Harris?

Will Harris succeed with taking shared credit with Biden for the current administration’s stellar accomplishments while distancing herself from its failures or from what wasn’t done? Will she become more effective at reminding people that much blame for what was not accomplished rests at the feet of a Senate that wasn’t filibuster-proof and a House controlled by radical-right Republicans? This reminds us of the important task of getting majorities in Congress and working hard on down-ballot races for Senate and House.

Will people’s perception of our economy catch up with the stats of our improved economy and its health relative to other developed nations around the world? Will Democrats be nimble enough to deal with external factors over which there is no control, like foreign events and October surprises?

Despite all these uncertainties, we are still miles away from the certain defeat the Democrats faced just six weeks ago with Biden at the top of the ticket. Optimism remains, though it must be buoyed by hard work for all who care about the values Harris and the Democrats gave voice to so effectively this week. From the Presidential race down through campaigns for Congress and state offices, the tasks are there. Surely we can all find places where we all, Democrats, Independents and, yes, traditional Republicans can make a contribution. The time is here. The place is anywhere we are at any given moment.

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